Soybeans: how the possible increase in export taxes impacts the market and the situation that could "force" it

After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2020Argentine farmers increased forward selling of soybeans to avoid higher export taxes — MercoPress+0.6%
• Aug 11, 2025eFeedLink - Tax changes in Argentina could boost Brazilian soybean exports+2.9%
• Sep 8, 2023Argentina: Soybean exporters will have access to dollars for industrial production-0.2%
• Jun 18, 2025Country risk classification under the EUDR and its impact on implementation - Cecafé-2.9%
• Jan 13, 2026To unlock growth, Argentina should reduce its export taxes - Atlantic Council-1.9%

After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 13, 2022Southeast region cuts palm oil export tax. How will it impact the biodiesel market?-5.0%
• Aug 11, 2025eFeedLink - Tax changes in Argentina could boost Brazilian soybean exports+0.3%
• Dec 3, 2018The low-ILUC loophole could allow business-as-usual palm oil imports for biodiesel in Europe - International Council on Clean Transportation+2.5%
• Dec 13, 2023Something’s Gotta Give – Five Ways the Market Could React to Surging Renewable Diesel Output, RIN Generation – Prometheus Institute+0.3%
• Sep 8, 2023Argentina: Soybean exporters will have access to dollars for industrial production-1.9%

After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2020Argentine farmers increased forward selling of soybeans to avoid higher export taxes — MercoPress-0.6%
• May 4, 2022Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban?-1.7%
• Oct 15, 2026The European Union Deforestation Regulation’s Uneven Impact: Who is exposed and what are the costs? | International Institute for Sustainable Development-1.4%
• Oct 14, 2026Has Biofuel Demand Replaced Export Demand in U.S. Soybean Markets? - American Soybean Association-2.3%
• Aug 26, 2021How to delink the UK’s soybean imports and livestock supply chains from deforestation in the Amazon - LSE Business Review-5.1%