
Brazil will implement a mandatory biodiesel blend of B11 from March 2019, rising 1 percentage point a year to B15. ABIOVE estimates this adds 600,000 metric tons of biodiesel demand next year, requiring about 3.3 million tons of soybean crush.
Higher Brazilian biodiesel demand absorbs more soybean oil and supports crushing, which is supportive for soy oil and soybean meal supply. The meal output from additional crush could weigh on meal prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.