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Amendments to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act favor US soybean oil and limit imported used cooking oil. EPA's proposed RVO would require substantially larger biomass-based diesel volumes in 2026 and 2027, and more soybean oil is projected to go to biofuel than food for the first time.
Rising biofuel demand for domestic soybean oil shifts crush economics toward oil over meal, which can leave soybean meal supplies relatively abundant and pressure meal prices.
farmprogress.comAllison LynchAug 14, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
