US domestic soybean oil demand could rise slightly in 2020, market sources said, citing the reinstated $1-per-gallon biomass-based diesel blending credit. USDA data showed January soybean crush up 3% year on year and soybean meal output for feed up 4%.
Stronger biodiesel-driven crush supports soybean oil demand and adds meal supply for feed buyers. The result is a firmer oil share and steady meal availability, with mixed price effects on meal.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.