President Biden's target to cut US greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030 is boosting the biofuel sector. US biodiesel capacity is projected to reach 5 billion gallons a year by 2024.
USDA projects biofuel use of 11.5 billion lb of US soybean oil in 2021-22, up from 9.1 billion lb the prior year.
Rising biofuel mandates and output shift soybean oil toward fuel use and tighten edible supply. That underpins soyoil prices and can pull soybean meal supplies with it through crush.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.