
NOPA data showed soybean oil stocks held by members fell 12.3% month-on-month in September 2026 to 1.05 billion pounds, the lowest since 2014. USDA expects soybean oil use for biofuels to reach 17.8 billion pounds in MY 2026/27, up about 20% from the prior season.
Tightening soyoil stocks and rising biofuel demand support soybean oil prices and raise feedstock costs for food, feed and industrial users.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.