
Treasury issued interim guidance on the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) on January 11, allowing biofuel producers to claim the credit immediately. Imported used cooking oil is excluded from the 45ZCF-GREET model and can only qualify through the CORSIA model for sustainable aviation fuel.
Excluding imported used cooking oil shifts feedstock demand toward domestic soybean oil and canola oil, which supports soybean oil prices, though rulemaking is still pending.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.