Indonesia's export ban reportedly excludes crude palm oil and RBD palm oil, covering only bulk and packaged RBD palm olein. Crude palm oil prices fell after the news broke, and analysts expect exporters to shift toward crude and refined exports ahead of the April 28 start.
A narrower ban means more palm oil stays available to importers such as India, easing the supply shock and weighing on palm oil prices.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.