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Crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 3.3% to 3,455 ringgit a tonne on April 27, the lowest since early October. Indonesia changed its domestic market obligation rules, cutting the domestic cooking oil target to 300,000 tonnes a month and tightening the export ratio from 6:1 to 4:1, effective May 1.
The policy shift is expected to free more Indonesian palm oil for export, increasing global availability and pressuring prices from the largest producer.
fastmarkets.comthe Fastmarkets team, Min Jie YawApr 28, 2023After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Indonesia's revised domestic market obligation and looser export ratio, effective May 1, pushed futures to a six-month low in the days just before the window, signaling more export supply.
Palm oil fell to a six-month low on Indonesia's looser export policy, which adds vegetable oil supply to global markets and pressures competing soybean oil; the policy took effect May 1.
Indonesia's loosened DMO and export ratio, effective May 1, raise expected global supply and pushed CPO to a six-month low, setting up the May 1 drop.
