
A coalition of 21 NGOs urged EU Climate Commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete to exclude palm oil and soy biodiesel from eligible renewable transport fuels by classifying them as high indirect land-use change risk. The Commission must adopt the delegated act by February 1, 2019.
If the EU classifies palm and soy biodiesel as high-ILUC, demand for these feedstocks in European biofuel blending would decline, which is bearish for palm oil and soybean oil. The outcome is still undecided.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.