Transport & Environment argues the EU should end support for palm oil biodiesel after Parliament's renewable energy directive vote capped food-based biofuels. Indonesia and Malaysia, which control 85% of world palm oil output, have threatened retaliation.
If the EU phases out palm oil biodiesel support, demand from European biodiesel would shrink, a bearish factor for palm oil, while the threatened retaliation adds trade risk for vegetable oil markets.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.