
Under a new EU law, biofuels with higher indirect land-use risk will be capped at 2019 levels until 2023 and reduced to zero by 2030. The Commission proposal says 45% of new palm oil land since 2008 was previously forest, versus 8% for soybeans.
A zero-by-2030 cap on palm biodiesel in the EU reduces vegetable oil demand and could pressure palm and soy oil prices, with knock-on effects on meal supply.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.