
The European Commission published criteria concluding that palm oil cultivation causes excessive deforestation, so its use in EU transport fuel should be phased out. Biofuel feedstocks deemed harmful will be capped at 2019 levels until 2023 and reduced to zero by 2030.
Removing palm-based biodiesel demand from the EU weakens a key outlet for palm oil and supports vegetable oil prices of competing feedstocks, while Malaysia and Indonesia threaten retaliation that could further disrupt trade flows.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.