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The European Commission decided that palm oil use in transport fuel will be phased out from 2023 and reach zero by 2030, and will no longer count toward EU renewable targets. Soy was not classified as unsustainable, and some exemptions remain.
Phasing out palm-based biodiesel removes a significant EU demand outlet for palm oil, which is bearish for palm oil prices, while soy oil avoids the restriction and may gain relative demand.
transportenvironment.orgApr 15, 2019After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
