Lawmakers in the European Parliament were considering a full phase-out of palm oil in transport fuels by 2021, with support from the largest political groups ahead of a plenary vote. The proposal formed part of the revised renewable energy directive.
Broad cross-party support made a palm oil biofuel ban likely, which reduces expected EU demand for palm oil. Markets would expect buyers to shift toward other vegetable oils.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.