
An updated 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit model raises the calculated credit for soybean-based biofuels, with soybean renewable diesel carbon intensity falling from 42.60 to 26.36 and the potential credit rising from 11 to 55 cents per gallon. For biodiesel, the credit rises from 33 to 66 cents per gallon.
A higher credit for soybean oil biofuel improves the economics of soybean oil use in renewable diesel and biodiesel, supporting crush margins and soybean meal output, which is supportive for soybean oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.