
Brazil's biodiesel blend rises to B14 on March 1 and is set to reach B15 in 2025, with Congress considering B20 or B25. The domestic soyoil market is paying about 2.5 cents per lb more than the export market, which could sharply curtail Brazilian soyoil exports.
Less Brazilian soyoil reaching export markets tightens global vegetable oil supply and supports soyoil prices. Argentina is likely to gain export share, which partly offsets the effect.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.