
USDA projects soybean oil's share of global vegetable oil consumption will fall below 30% in 2022-23, the first time in nearly a decade. About 44% of U.S. soybean oil is forecast to go to biofuels, and Brazil has raised its biodiesel blend mandate to 12%.
A higher Brazilian biodiesel blend absorbs more domestic soyoil and reduces exportable supply, while strong U.S. renewable diesel use makes U.S. soyoil uncompetitive abroad. Together these factors tighten global soyoil supply and support prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.