CME soybean oil futures reached new all-time highs in early June 2021 on biofuel demand linked to federal carbon-reduction goals. USDA's May report projects biofuel use of 12 billion pounds of soybean oil in 2021-22, up from 9.5 billion.
ADM, Cargill and others are expanding crushing capacity to meet this demand.
Rising biofuel use of soybean oil is a structural demand driver that supports vegetable oil prices. Expanded crush capacity will increase meal output, which may weigh on soybean meal prices over time.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.