
US biodiesel producers used a record 768 million pounds of soybean oil in December 2018, beating August's prior record by over 60 million pounds. Biodiesel output reached 168 million gallons, up 13.5% year over year, and soybean oil was cheap at about 28 cents per pound in the second half of 2018.
Strong biodiesel demand for soybean oil supports soy oil prices and draws feedstock away from meal-oriented crush margins, so it tightens the soy complex on the oil side. Corn oil use also rose, supporting that feedstock.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.