U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers

After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jul 24, 2018US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout-1.0%
• Sep 16, 2024India's farm trade measures to placate farmers-2.2%
• Dec 8, 2025Trump is giving farmers $12 billion in aid | AP News-1.5%
• Sep 25, 2023New Trade, Foreign Aid Dollars From USDA Check Boxes on Stabenow's Farm Bill List-2.7%
• May 14, 2025U.S. grains: Soybeans hit nearly 10-month high on biofuel and trade hopes - Grainews-3.8%

After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.

• Jan 1, 2026Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war+0.6%
• Jul 24, 2018US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout+1.7%
• Dec 1, 2020Farmers Have Received $7.7B in Trade Aid to Date | Feed & Grain-0.4%
• Feb 13, 2019Farmer trade aid sign-up ends Feb. 14-1.4%
• Jan 10, 2019Farm Policy: USDA's Trade Aid Package-1.4%

After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Jan 1, 2026Trump unveils $12 billion aid package for farmers hit by trade war+1.6%
• Dec 1, 2020Farmers Have Received $7.7B in Trade Aid to Date | Feed & Grain-0.9%
• Aug 27, 2018Trump offers trade aid to farmers, but some question its fairness - POLITICO-1.1%
• Feb 13, 2019Farmer trade aid sign-up ends Feb. 14-1.6%
• Jan 13, 2020Argentine farmers increased forward selling of soybeans to avoid higher export taxes — MercoPress-0.6%