◂ Event Timeline

Dec 1, 2020POLICYUS

Farmers Have Received $7.7B in Trade Aid to Date

USDA has paid out $7.7 billion so far in trade aid to offset retaliatory Chinese tariffs, and the Trump administration has pledged up to $12 billion. The payments are designed to cushion losses on crops hit by tariffs.

WHY IT MATTERS

Trade aid cushions farm incomes without changing export flows, so its direct effect on feed grain and oilseed prices is limited.

AFFECTSSoybeans◆Corn◆

SOURCE
feedandgrain.comDec 1, 2020

Price reaction & history

Soybeans◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.6%5d -0.9%20d +10.9%

After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

May 21, 2019U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers - Bloomberg+2.9%
Feb 13, 2019Farmer trade aid sign-up ends Feb. 14-1.6%
Oct 28, 2019In Argentina grains belt, farmers ready to 'unsaddle' as Peronists return+0.4%
Dec 8, 2025Trump is giving farmers $12 billion in aid | AP News-2.6%
Oct 23, 2024Potential Federal Policy Responses to Negative Grain Farm Incomes - farmdoc daily-2.7%

Corn◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.7%5d -0.4%20d +1.4%

After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.

May 21, 2019U.S. to favour soybeans in trade war aid for farmers - Bloomberg+2.4%
Jul 24, 2018US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout+1.7%
Feb 13, 2019Farmer trade aid sign-up ends Feb. 14-1.4%
Oct 28, 2019In Argentina grains belt, farmers ready to 'unsaddle' as Peronists return-1.3%
Dec 8, 2025Trump is giving farmers $12 billion in aid | AP News-1.0%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Corn CORN · GP ▸

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