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Farmdoc analysts project 2024 grain farm incomes will be low and in many cases negative. Hurricanes Helene and Milton have added damage, and federal relief via a farm bill extension or ad hoc disaster aid is likely in the lame duck session.
Expectations of federal aid may support farm incomes and planting intentions without directly changing supply, so price impact is limited near term.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoOct 23, 2024After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
