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University of Illinois and Ohio State economists analyze proposed increases to statutory reference prices in the House and Senate farm bills. They find that raising reference prices would raise PLC payments much more for peanuts, rice and seed cotton than for corn, soybeans and wheat.
The increase would be the largest federal spending item in the commodity title.
Higher reference prices would boost program payments and encourage production, particularly in rice and peanuts, which is mildly bearish for those crops' prices.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMay 15, 2024After 100 past bearish policy events, RICE moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
