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A University of Illinois farm economist reviewed current U.S. farm policy at the 2017 Illinois Farm Economics Summit, covering PLC and ARC programs under the 2014 Farm Bill. He noted the act expires with the 2018 crop year and Congress must reauthorize by September 30, 2018.
Uncertainty over the 2018 farm bill's safety-net design affects planting decisions and farm income expectations, but it does not directly move near-term grain prices.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoJan 5, 2018After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
