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University of Illinois economists summarized farm policy after three years of ad hoc payments, estimating direct farm payments in 2020 at about $46 billion, the highest on record. They tied these programs to the US-China trade war and the pandemic.
Large government payments have supported farm income and cushioned producers' selling pressure, but a future shift away from ad hoc aid could affect planting and marketing decisions for corn and soybeans.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoJan 7, 2021After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
