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A farmdoc daily analysis estimates the House reconciliation bill's PLC and ARC-CO changes would raise federal farm program outlays by $29.873 billion from 2025 to 2035. Rice, peanuts and cotton see larger proportional increases than corn, soybeans and wheat.
Higher reference prices and payments can support continued planting of program crops, sustaining supply over the long run, though the effect on near-term prices is modest.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMay 21, 2025After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
