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An analysis explains how the 2018 Farm Bill's reference price escalator sets effective reference prices for 2019 crop year ARC and PLC payments. The reference price is the higher of the statutory price or 85% of the five-year Olympic average, capped at 115% of the statutory price.
The escalator sets the government支持 floor that influences planting and marketing decisions for US program crops. It is a policy detail with limited immediate price impact.
proag.comFeb 22, 2019After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
