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AFBF economist John Newton reports that CBO projects ARC-CO assistance falling by 63% for corn, 12% for soybeans and 7% for wheat by fiscal 2019 from 2015 levels. More than 80% of counties with those crops may see lower ARC-CO revenue guarantees for the 2018/19 crop year.
Lower projected safety-net payments mean farmers may face weaker income support if prices stay low, which could influence acreage and marketing decisions over time, with limited immediate price effect.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bearish policy events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
