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Reporting on the USDA aid plan says it includes $4.7 billion in direct payments, with the vast majority, about $3.6 billion, going to soybean growers. Some observers question whether the distribution is fair across crops and regions.
Heavy weighting of payments toward soybeans cushions soybean producers and may slow acreage shifts, but it does not address lost China demand, so soybean price pressure from the trade dispute remains.
politico.comHelena Bottemiller Evich, Catherine Boudreau, Liz CramptonAug 27, 2018After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
