USDA forecasts Brazil's soybean oil production could reach 13.5 million tons in MY 2026/27. Exports are forecast to fall 15% to 1.7 million tons as domestic biodiesel demand rises with the planned B16 mandate.
Rising domestic biodiesel use reduces Brazilian soybean oil export availability, supporting global vegetable oil prices and tightening supply for feed fat buyers.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.