Loading…
DTN analyst Mitch Miller says USDA raised 2025-26 biofuel soyoil use by 3.25 billion pounds, requiring a sharp fall in exports. He notes the soyoil premium to palm oil is shrinking, which may fail to discourage exports.
A shrinking soyoil premium to palm oil removes the price signal needed to cut soyoil exports despite higher biofuel use. This raises the risk of tighter soyoil supplies and firmer vegetable oil prices.
dtnpf.comMitch MillerOct 2, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
