Soybean industry groups say the final RFS volumes for 2023 through 2025 are considerably below what the biofuel sector can produce. Biomass-based diesel output rose more than 30% in the first five months of 2023, while the mandate implies only a 21% increase from 2022 to 2025.
Mandates that trail actual production capacity could cap soybean oil demand growth from biodiesel and renewable diesel, which is bearish for soy oil and crush economics.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.