
Agribusiness firms Cargill and Bunge are slowing soybean purchases because of uncertainty over US biofuel policy. The lack of Treasury guidance on the clean fuel production credit (45Z) has led biofuel producers to postpone soyoil purchases for early next year.
By mid-October, fuel retailers had procured only about 10% of their Q1 biodiesel, versus more than 80% at that point in a typical year.
Weaker soyoil and soybean buying from biofuel users and crushers reduces demand for soybeans and soyoil, which pressures prices unless the tax guidance arrives and restores demand.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.