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Cargill and Bunge are slowing soybean purchases amid uncertainty over US biofuels policy, specifically the lack of guidance on the new clean-fuel tax credit (45Z). Biofuel producers are postponing some soyoil purchases for early next year, which is damping soybean demand.
Weaker crush-related demand for soybeans and soyoil reduces near-term buying support, which is bearish for soybean and soyoil prices until the tax credit guidance arrives.
bloomberg.comTarso Veloso, Kim ChipmanOct 28, 2024After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
