
Farmdoc reports that January 2017 soybean futures rose 8.4 percent from October 13 to November 25, with soybean oil up 9.4 percent. The gains followed the EPA's November 23 RFS release, which set the 2017 renewable fuel requirement at 19.28 billion gallons.
The mandate-driven rally in soybean oil tightens vegetable oil supply for feed and food users and supports soybean prices.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, SBM moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.