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Soybean futures rose 8.4 percent from October 13 to November 25, led by soybean oil, which gained 9.4 percent. The rally followed the EPA's November 23 release of the 2017 RFS volumes and the 2018 biomass-based diesel requirement.
The EPA mandate underpins soybean oil's rally by raising expected biodiesel demand, which tightens the oil supply and pulls soybean prices higher.
agweek.comDebra Levey-Larson, University of IllinoisNov 27, 2016After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
