
EPA released a draft rule proposing 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard levels and 2020 biodiesel volumes. The proposal raises conventional ethanol volumes to 15 billion gallons, while groups criticize the continued use of about 1.5 billion gallons of refiner waivers.
Reaction from biofuel and farm groups is mixed.
A 15 billion gallon conventional ethanol requirement supports corn demand for ethanol, and higher biomass-based diesel volumes support soybean oil. Waiver uncertainty could reduce the effective demand the proposal implies.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.