
EPA released 2018 Renewable Fuel Standard volume obligations, with 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuel and 4.29 billion gallons of advanced biofuel. Biomass-based diesel stayed at 2.1 billion gallons, while cellulosic volume rose by 50 million gallons.
Holding biomass-based diesel flat limits expected soybean oil demand growth from biofuel, while the steady conventional ethanol volume supports corn grind demand.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.