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Chicago soybean oil futures jumped about 17% in two days after the EPA proposed much higher-than-expected biomass-based diesel volumes under the RFS on June 13. Since then the market has pulled back about 6% from its June 16 high as traders await a final ruling that may not come until November.
Higher proposed biofuel mandates would lift demand for soybean oil and support soy crush margins, but the proposal's uncertainty keeps prices volatile and buyers of soybean meal should watch for shifts in crush volumes.
world-grain.comCrystal FutrellAug 1, 2025After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
