The EPA said it expects biodiesel production to be restricted in 2018 and seeks comment on waivers to the blending requirements. CBOT soyoil fell to a five-week low after the announcement, and the NBB says capacity exceeds mandated volumes.
Reduced biodiesel mandates lower soyoil demand, which tends to lower soybean crush margins and soybean meal supply pricing pressure.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.