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EPA announced final decisions on 31 small refinery exemptions and 6 denials under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The agency also signaled deregulatory steps for natural gas, flexible fuel vehicles and E85, and an expedited atrazine reregistration for corn.
Granting refinery exemptions removes biofuel blending demand, which is bearish for soybean oil and corn-based ethanol feedstock demand and pressures soy and corn prices.
epa.govUS EPA,OAAug 9, 2019After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EPA's Aug 9 decisions on 31 small refinery exemptions signaled biofuel policy changes that shift expected biodiesel feedstock demand, which is directly relevant to soybean oil prices in the final days of the window.
EPA's small refinery exemption decisions and biofuel announcements (dated Aug 9, but likely reflecting news flow around the move) bear directly on biodiesel demand for soybean oil; timing is slightly after the move, so confidence is moderate.
