The EIA reports that the EPA granted 31 small refinery exemptions for the 2018 compliance year, exempting about 1.43 billion gallons, or 7.4% of the renewable fuel mandate. Two applications were still pending as of October 2019.
The total non-exempt renewable volume in 2018 was 17.86 billion gallons, the highest since the program began.
Exemptions reduce the biofuel volume that refiners must blend, which weakens demand for corn and soybean oil used in ethanol and biodiesel, and this effect was already reflected in the 2018 market.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.