
EPA has scrapped a detailed plan that would have raised the renewable fuel blending obligation for refiners. The change follows the agency's expanded use of small refinery waivers under the Trump administration.
Overall blended volumes are to be kept on target through other means.
Dropping the higher blending obligation reduces expected biofuel demand, which is bearish for soybean oil and corn used in ethanol. Refiners may also face less pressure to buy renewable credits.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.