Strong RVO’s, Strong Crush: Biofuel Policy Tightens Soybean Oil Balance Sheet

After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 24, 2024Soybean Crush Remains Strong as US Energy Policy Goes Awry+0.4%
• Jan 15, 2026Soybeans Lead As Biofuel Policy Bets Lift Soyoil - Finimize+3.3%
• Oct 16, 2026Soybean Oil’s Relevance in Biodiesel Trade when Diesel and Policy are Increasingly Tight — 605 Markets+2.3%
• Mar 17, 2026Soybean Oil Gains as Trump Plans Farmers, Biofuel Makers Meeting+0.6%
• Oct 27, 2026Rising biofuel demand tightens US soybean oil supplies, puts pressure on industrial users - BioEnergy Times-0.5%

After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.

• Jun 24, 2024Soybean Crush Remains Strong as US Energy Policy Goes Awry-0.9%
• Jan 15, 2026Soybeans Lead As Biofuel Policy Bets Lift Soyoil - Finimize+3.3%
• Nov 30, 2022Surging US Biofuel Production Stokes Soybean Crush Demand-0.3%
• Nov 24, 2016Soybean oil futures rose by 7% due to high biofuel-0.4%
• Nov 23, 2016Soybeans, soybean oil bound higher after EPA raises biofuel targets: Podcast+0.2%

After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Jun 24, 2024Soybean Crush Remains Strong as US Energy Policy Goes Awry-0.9%
• Nov 24, 2016Soybean oil futures rose by 7% due to high biofuel-1.7%
• Aug 18, 2025Soybean oil in the biofuel era: An industry expert’s perspective+4.9%
• Jul 26, 2026Biofuel Mandates Test Capacity and Soybean Oil Demand - RFD-4.7%
• Nov 4, 2024Cargill, Bunge Slow Soy Buying on Stalled US Biofuels Policy+0.0%