On October 9, 2026, the US allowed temporary imports of Russian diesel after record-high diesel prices. The temporary License 135 adds about 2.25 million barrels of supply, less than one day of US transport diesel demand.
Diesel supply concerns raise biodiesel feedstock demand and soybean oil values, while diesel prices influence farm and freight costs.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.