
Brent fell to $58.37/bbl in the week to early October while CME ULSD fell less, widening the ULSD-Brent spread to $21.20/bbl. Analysts said the strength in physical diesel could be an early sign of IMO 2020 effects.
A widening diesel crack versus crude points to firmer distillate prices even as crude softens. Diesel is a key input for trucking and farm operations that move feed.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.