
Valero officials said on their third-quarter earnings call that diesel spreads versus Brent have widened over recent weeks, and that IMO 2020 likely plays a role. The crack spread between Brent and ULSD averaged $21.66/bbl since October 1, versus $16.44 in the first half of the year.
Expectations of stronger marine demand for low-sulfur distillate under IMO 2020 are lifting diesel prices relative to crude. That supports diesel-linked freight and fuel costs for feed mills and haulers.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.