
Speakers at Transparency19 said trucking firms should watch the forward curve for low-sulfur diesel as IMO 2020 approaches. An analysis cited estimates that about 700,000 barrels per day of high-sulfur fuel will continue to be burned, and another 700,000 barrels per day will go to scrubbers.
Ship operators buying distillate-based compliant fuel will compete with land diesel buyers, which can lift US diesel prices and trucking costs. That in turn raises the cost of hauling feed ingredients.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.