
CNBC reports that analysts expect the IMO's January 1, 2020 cap on marine fuel sulfur at 0.5%, down from 3.5%, to create an oversupply of high-sulfur fuel oil and boost demand for compliant low-sulfur products. Analysts expect this to spark a resurgence in diesel demand over coming months.
UBS estimates the green shipping market could be worth at least $250 billion over five years.
Stronger diesel demand from the shipping rule would raise fuel costs for freight and logistics used in feed supply chains.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.